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We are ONE MONTH away from football. We have gone through some alternate win totals, but now it is time to talk rookies. This class has a chance to be special. It was a deep draft filled with players who can make an immediate impact for several teams. We have extracted a few rookie player prop best bets from the market and will give some in-depth analysis on why we like them.
You must shop around as these numbers are everywhere, from book to book. Although there are only three listed – if you come across any JJ McCarthy numbers, bet the under.
All reports show that he is not even third-string right now, and they want to bring him along slowly. On top of that, he’s not a sling-it-around-the-yard quarterback. He’s a game manager who just does not lose games or make mistakes.
Well, there is my bonus bet. Now, let’s get into the top three.
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Keon Coleman Receiving Yards Leader +850 734553
We are going to start our rookie prop best bets and analysis off with a positive . . .
After the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, there is a glaring hole in the wide receiver room. Diggs is coming off back-to-back seasons with 155+ targets and four consecutive 100+ reception seasons. Davis totaled over 170 targets while securing just under 100 catches.
Insert Keon Coleman, who, by all s, was one of the best receivers in the country last year. His ability to make contested catches and be explosive after the catch makes him my favorite option in this market. I expect a lot of 21 (2 tight ends—1 running back) personnel to take some attention off Coleman.
Along with the tight ends, James Cook is also a weapon out of the backfield. Coleman can play all over the field on either side and that versatility is unlike the other receivers ahead of him.
Volume and opportunity are the two most important aspects of betting Coleman. Not to mention, he has one of the best quarterbacks of anyone in this market.
No other receiver is stepping into a situation as good as Coleman. The absence of over 300 targets and over 200 receptions in the past two seasons has to be ed for.
Coleman has been durable and will have a huge target share all year. Coleman is a bit undervalued for the amount of opportunity and style of offense he is playing in.
Rome Odunze Under 695.5 Receiving Yards -112 362l3c
If I had to buy stock in any rookie receiver going forward, it would be Odunze. As for this season, I think this number is a bit large. For starters, he is a rookie coming into a team with three weapons that garner a lot of attention.
Kennan Allen missed five games last year but still had 150 targets. He’s been a target machine his entire career, and his ability to move the chains possession by possession is elite.
In his first year, DJ Moore had over 130 targets and was the clear number-one option in the offense. Add in Cole Kmet, who nearly had 100 targets, and we have Odunze as the clear fourth option. That is not including the backfield and Caleb Williams’ legs.
If you go through teams’ third and fourth options, you rarely see them eclipse this number. Now, are we expecting that from a rookie? I don’t think so.
Kennan Allen is older and could miss time, but that would elevate Odunze to even more attention. I would not be surprised if the Bears are more of a run-first team to alleviate some pressure off Williams in his first year.
Jayden Daniels Over 500.5 Rushing Yards -130 6e5g22
The Commanders have not had this caliber quarterback since 2012. You might a guy by the name of Robert Griffin III. He ran for over 800 yards and took over the NFC with his dual-threat ability. Jayden Daniels has the same skillset and is in a favorable system with new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Daniels also resembles a dual-threat quarterback that Kliff had in 2019. Kyler Murray, as a rookie, rushed for over 500 yards in a similar system.
The reigning Heisman winner is coming off rushing for over 1100 yards in the best conference in college football. This is a step up in competition, but Daniels has a solid set of weapons and a staff who understands how to utilize his skillset.
Several dual-threat quarterbacks have been in the league over the last decade. They all had similar success using their legs in their rookie year. The Commanders’ offensive line will be going against some elite rushes in the NFC East, which will allow Daniels to use his legs more than some of those former players.
Expectations are not high for this Commanders team, and we should see them playing in a negative game script for much of the season. As long as Daniels has watched how well Kyler avoids taking big hits, I believe he cruises past this number.
